Act I

The Innocent

How you imagine

... actually is

Yes, this is Word Art

2,4,8

What's the logic for this sequence?

2 (*2) 4 (*2) 8

2 (+2) 4 (+4) 8

2 (+2 (f)) 4 (f*2) 8

2 (n1 = n3 - n2 - n1) 4 (...) 8

DISPROVE IT

3 tries

Act IV

The Bear

It's big...

it's a problem

What is it all about?

Heuristics and Cognitive Biases

“They are mental shortcuts that usually involve focusing on one aspect of a complex problem and ignoring others”

so many...

• Optimism and Loss Aversion
• Framing
• Anchoring Effect
• Availability Heuristic


• And....
• Substitution
• Sunk Cost


• And....

• Ambiguity effect
• Anchoring or focalism
• Anthropomorphism
• Attentional bias
• Automation bias
• Availability heuristic
• Availability cascade
• Backfire effect
• Bandwagon effect
• Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect
• Belief bias

• Bias blind spot
• Cheerleader effect
• Choice-supportive bias
• Clustering illusion
• Confirmation bias
• Congruence bias
• Conjunction fallacy
• Conservatism (belief revision)
• Continued influence effect
• Contrast effect
• Curse of knowledge

• Declinism
• Decoy effect
• Denomination effect
• Disposition effect
• Distinction bias
• Dunning-Kruger effect
• Duration neglect
• Empathy gap
• Endowment effect
• Essentialism
• Exaggerated expectation

• Experimenter's or expectation bias
• Focusing effect
• Forer effect or Barnum effect
• Framing effect
• Frequency illusion
• Functional fixedness
• Gambler's fallacy
• Hard–easy effect
• Hindsight bias
• Hot-hand fallacy
• Hyperbolic discounting

• Identifiable victim effect
• IKEA effect ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
• Illusion of control
• Illusion of validity
• Illusory correlation
• Impact bias
• Information bias
• Insensitivity to sample size
• Irrational escalation
• Less-is-better effect
• Loss aversion

• Mere exposure effect
• Money illusion
• Moral credential effect
• Negativity bias or Negativity effect
• Neglect of probability
• Normalcy bias
• Not invented here
• Observer-expectancy effect
• Omission bias
• Optimism bias
• Ostrich effect

• Outcome bias
• Overconfidence effect
• Pareidolia
• Pessimism bias
• Planning fallacy
• Post-purchase rationalization
• Pro-innovation bias
• Projection bias
• Pseudocertainty effect
• Reactance
• Reactive devaluation

• Recency illusion
• Regressive bias
• Restraint bias
• Rhyme as reason effect
• Risk compensation / Peltzman effect
• Selective perception
• Semmelweis reflex
• Social comparison bias
• Social desirability bias
• Status quo bias
• Stereotyping

• Subadditivity effect
• Subjective validation
• Survivorship bias
• Time-saving bias
• Third-person effect
• Triviality / Parkinson's Law of
• Unit bias
• Weber–Fechner law
• Well travelled road effect
• Zero-risk bias
• Zero-sum heuristic

Framing Effect

< 12h/year

Anchoring Effect

Do you take "like" 3 days to do this task?

It's just a button

Availability Heuristic

I know how to do that...

I've done it before

“If you can think of it, it must be important.”

Substitution

It's just a button

Optimism and Loss Aversion

“What you see is all there is (WYSIATI).”

Also known for

• Bad estimations
• Focus more on benefits
• Ignore the risks

Why?

• Consider the Know Knows
• Rarely the Known Unknowns
• WYSIATI

Sunk Cost Effect/Fallacy

Also known for

• Invest money when you are losing it
• Invest time in a feature which is not working
• ... Even projects or entire companies/startups

Books

Warning

This is Cliché

How many passes? 16

The curtain color changed

One missing person in black

“The gorilla study illustrates two important facts about our minds: we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.”